When do electric vehicles become cleaner than gasoline cars?

This model is increasingly controversial as governments around the world struggle to meet climate goals. The Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago has developed a model that incorporates thousands of variables, from the composition of an electric car's battery to the amount of aluminum or plastic in the engine.

This was made possible by a Reuters analysis of data based on a model that predicts emissions over the life cycle of a car.

The Argonne Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Technologies (GREET) model is now being used with additional tools to assist shape policy at the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the California Air Resources Board, the two main regulators of vehicle emissions in the United States. Making electric vehicles generates substantially more carbon.

Because of this, experts disagree on how big the carbon gap is when a vehicle is first sold, as well as where the "break-even" point occurs during an EV's existence. The payback period then depends on factors such as the size of an electric car's battery, gasoline car fuel efficiency, and how electricity is used to charge.

The EPA has used GREET to help evaluate standards for renewable fuel and automobile greenhouse gases, while the California Air Resources Board uses it to assess compliance with the state's low-carbon fuel standard. GREET is also utilized by Argonne to create an online tool that allows consumers in the United States to calculate the emissions produced by EVs based on the fuels.

According to the Reuters study, the results are comparable to those in IHS Markit's life-cycle assessment of electric and combustion-engine automobiles in Europe. According to Vijay Subramanian, global director of carbon dioxide (CO2) compliance at IHS Markit, The typical break-even point in carbon emissions for EVs was about 15.

Some are less positive about EVs.

According to a researcher from the University of Liege, the average electric vehicle would have to travel roughly 700,000 kilometers before emitting less CO2 than a comparable gasoline automobile. He subsequently lowered his estimates. Now, he thinks the break-even point could be anywhere from 67,000 to 151,000 kilometers away.

Other organizations, however, continue to dispute that electric vehicles are always less polluting and carbon-intensive than gasoline-powered cars. "On a life-cycle basis," according to the American Petroleum Institute, which represents over 600 firms in the oil sector, "different automobile powertrains result in comparable greenhouse gas emissions."

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